Sensex, Nifty open lower as banking stocks drag; crude spike rattles market

Benchmark indices opened in the red on Monday morning, dragged down by sharp selling in heavyweight banking stocks even as pharma and IT counters provided some support. The BSE Sensex, which closed at 78,151.45 on Friday, opened flat at 78,151.45 and slipped to 77,694.13, down 457.32 points or 0.59 per cent, as of 9.17 am. The NSE Nifty50, which had ended the previous session at 24,334.30, opened at 24,190.05 and was trading at 24,227.90, a decline of 106.40 points or 0.44 per cent.

The sell-off was led by private sector banks, with HDFC Bank falling the steepest among Nifty50 components, dropping ₹37.80 or 4.61 per cent to ₹781.80, after disappointing Q1 results — particularly on net interest margins. Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, noted: "...HDFC Bank has disappointed, particularly on the NIM front..."

Axis Bank shed ₹54.60 or 4.11 per cent to ₹1,273.90, while Kotak Mahindra Bank fell ₹11.75 or 3.01 per cent to ₹378.20. IndiGo declined 1.46 per cent to ₹5,172.00, and Jio Financial Services dropped 1.17 per cent to ₹240.13.

The banking sector weakness comes even as Q1 earnings from other lenders showed strength. Vijayakumar pointed out: "...ICICI Bank has reported stellar set of numbers with excellent all-round performance. Kotak Bank, too, has reported very good results..." The divergence in results is creating stock-specific moves within the sector.

On the gainers' side, Cipla rose 1.47 per cent to ₹1,439.50, while Tech Mahindra advanced 1.41 per cent to ₹1,595.00, continuing the broader IT sector's outperformance from last week, when IT gained 4.2 per cent. ONGC climbed 1.41 per cent to ₹250.78, JSW Steel rose 1.38 per cent to ₹1,254.40, and Hindalco gained 1.27 per cent to ₹956.10, offering some support to the metals and energy segments.

The broader market sentiment is being weighed down by a surge in crude oil prices. Brent crude has crossed $90 per barrel amid escalating US-Iran tensions, raising concerns over India's import bill and currency pressure. Vijayakumar cautioned: "...Brent crude spiking above $90 on escalating tensions between US and Iran... India's vulnerability to energy shock will resurface with negative implications for the rupee and FPI flows..."

Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities, flagged that Tehran's declaration of a ceasefire breakdown between the US and Iran had amplified fears over disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's busiest shipping routes.

Despite the weak opening, analysts see domestic market structure as fundamentally intact. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said: "...the Nifty has formed a bullish candle on the weekly chart while maintaining a higher-bottom formation on the daily chart, suggesting that the broader trend remains positive..." He identified the 24,000–24,200 zone as critical support, and said a move above 24,600 could push markets towards 24,500–24,600 on the upside.

Sachin Gupta, VP of Technical Research at Choice Broking, noted that derivatives data continues to support the bullish undertone, with put writers aggressive at the 24,100 strike, while maximum call open interest at 24,500–24,600 levels suggests immediate resistance. The Put-Call Ratio stands at 1.13, and India VIX rose marginally to 13.15. He said: "...despite the weak global backdrop, the domestic market continues to exhibit a resilient technical structure, suggesting that any decline may attract buying at lower levels..."

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, expects Q1 earnings to drive market action more than macro cues in the near term: "...stock-specific movements are expected to dominate trading, while the broader indices are likely to remain sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment and fluctuations in crude oil prices..."

On the positive side, Vijayakumar noted that the weakening of the AI trade in markets like the US, South Korea, and Taiwan "...can make ...