Nifty 50 Outlook for the week: Short-term picture flips weak

Nifty 50, Sensex and Nifty Bank index were beaten down badly last week. We had expected the indices to break their resistance and go higher. That view has gone wrong. Crude Oil price reaching the $100 per dollar mark on the back of the US-Iran war has jolted the Indian market.

Sensex and Nifty fell 2.7 and 2.3 per cent respectively. Nifty Bank index on the other hand was down over 3 per cent. Among the sectors, the BSE Private Bank and BSE Realty indices fell the most. Both indices were down over 4 per cent each last week.

The benchmark indices have indeed declined below their intermediate support as well, contrary to our expectation. The recent market movement is happening against our expectation. So, we now prefer to step back and just watch the market without taking any specific stance until we get some clarity.

Short-term view: The picture has turned slightly weak with a head and shoulder formation on the daily chart. Key resistance is around 23,850 and support is at 23,600. A break below 23,600 can drag the Nifty down to 23,000 and even lower in the coming weeks. To avoid this fall, Nifty has to breach 23,850 and rise above 24,000 from here. Only then the upside will open up to revisit 24,400-24,500 levels again.

We will have to wait and watch what happens.

Medium-term view: Our view of seeing a rise within the broad 22,000-26,500 range seems to be not working out well. It looks like the Nifty can fall back again within the range. If the above-mentioned fall to 23,000 happens, then there are good chances to see 22,500 and lower levels as well.

However, for now, there is no change in the broader bullish bias. We still retain our view of getting a bullish breakout above 26,500 eventually. Such a break can take the Nifty up to 28,000 and even 30,000 in the long term. It is only that this breakout and the rally can now happen with a delay.

The view will go wrong only if the Nifty declines below 22,000.

Short-term view: The fall below 57,000 has turned the near-term picture weak. A crucial support is around 55,500 which can be tested this week. A bounce from there can take the index up to 57,400 or 57,700. That in turn can give some relief.

But, if the index breaks below 55,500, there is a danger of seeing a fall to 54,000. The price action around 55,500 will need a close watch this week.

Medium-term view: The level of 55,000 will be a crucial support to watch. A break below it can drag the index down to 53,500 or even 51,000 in the coming months.

Key resistance is around 59,000. A sustained break above it is needed to strengthen the bullish case. Only then the index can gain momentum to see 65,000 in the medium term and 68,000-69,000 in the long term.

For now, we continue to retain our long-term bullish bias to see 68,000-69,000 on the upside. However, it is not very clear whether the rally can happen from above 55,000 itself or after an extended fall to 51,000.

Short-term view: The fall below 76,500 is a negative. Immediate resistance is at 76,200. Above that 76,500-76,700 is the next key resistance. There is room for a fall to 74,800 or 74,500 from here. A bounce anywhere from the 74,800-74,500 region will give some relief and take the Sensex higher to 76,000 and 77,000 again.

In case the index breaks below 74,500, an extended fall to 73,300 can be seen.

Medium-term view: There seems to be a struggle for the Sensex in moving up within its 71,000-86,000 range. From a long-term perspective, there is no change in our bullish view. We expect the Sensex to breach 86,000 and rally to 90,000 initially and 94,000 eventually in the long term.

But it is not clear at the moment whether index can fall back to 73,000 and 71,000 first and then rise back or go higher from here itself.

The index has declined well beyond our expected level of 22,750 last week. Failure to rise back above 22,800 from here can drag the Nifty Midcap 150 index down to 22,200-22,000 in the coming weeks.

However, there is no change in the lo...