India GDP Highlights: Q4FY26 GDP at 7.8%, real GDP growth at 7.7%, says govt

India is set to release its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the January-March quarter FY26 and the full financial year at 4 pm on Friday.

A Reuters poll of economists on Monday predicted that India's economic growth likely eased to 7.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, as weakening external demand and softer industrial activity offset strong government spending and resilient agricultural growth. Despite a series of external shocks, including higher US tariffs on Indian goods and the US-Israel war with Iran, which drove crude oil prices sharply higher, India has maintained its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy.

India's GDP likely grew 7.2 per cent year-on-year in the January-March quarter, down from a better-than-expected 7.8 per cent expansion in the previous quarter, according to the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 45 economists conducted between 22 May and 1 June. Estimates ranged from 6.1 per cent to 7.7 per cent.

Economists’ medium-term projections also point to a more cautious economic outlook. GDP growth is forecast to moderate to 6.5 per cent in the current quarter, with the fiscal year average expected at 6.7 per cent, before improving slightly to 6.9 per cent in the following fiscal year.

According to forecasts, growth could moderate. SBI projects 6.6 per cent growth for FY27, while ICRA predicts around 6.2 per cent amid elevated crude prices and geopolitical uncertainty.

The GDP figures are scheduled to be released on the same day as the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced that the repo rate remains unchanged at 5.25 per cent and that the stance remains 'neutral'.

The RBI revised its growth forecast for FY27 downward to 6.6 per cent, compared with its earlier estimate of 6.9 per cent. At the same time, the central bank increased its CPI inflation projection for the fiscal year to 5.1 per cent from 4.6 per cent, citing higher prices of commercial LPG, base metals, plastics, rubber, and other inputs.

India's GDP growth of 7.7 per cent in FY2025-26 came in higher than anticipated in the Second Advance Estimates (SAE), reflecting the resilience and robustness of the Indian economy despite global headwinds, Secretary, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), Saurabh Garg said

In a post on X, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “India’s growth momentum remains strong! GDP growth rate of 7.7% in FY 2025-26 and 7.8% in Q4 of FY 2025-26 reflect the inherent strength of our economy, the success of reforms and the hard work of 140 crore Indians. We shall leave no stone unturned to further ‘Ease of Living,’ ‘Ease of Doing Business’ and increase opportunities for our youth.”

India's FY26 economic growth presents a "balanced picture" with different components contributing from both the Gross Value Added (GVA) and expenditure sides of the economy, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran said today while commenting on the provisional estimates of annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

In a post on X, Sambit Patra hit out at Congress and said, “Naysayers predicted slowdown, panic and collapse. India answered with 7.7% GDP growth in FY 2025-26. All engines of the economy are firing — consumption, investment, manufacturing, rural demand, credit and services.”

The BJP on Friday claimed the latest GDP data shows that India's economy continues to show “remarkable resilience and sustained growth” despite global uncertainties and slammed Congress leader Rahul Gandhi for his recent claim that a "massive economic tsunami" is coming.

Senior NCP (SP) leader and former Maharashtra finance minister Jayant Patil on Friday questioned the condition of the Indian economy and asked if the country was on the path of development or moving towards a slowdown despite the Union government's promotion of 'Amrit Kaal'.

In a statement, Patil cited what he described as worrying economic indicators, including a decline in GST collections, rising inflation projections and a moderation in GDP growth estimates.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday said the government is committed to further drive the 'Reform Express' with decisive policy measures to ensure positive economic momentum amid global challenges.