Gift Nifty at 24,300 indicates flat opening for Indian stocks

Indian stock markets are likely to open on flat-to-weak note on Monday despite mixed global cues and escalating rhetoric and tension between US and Iran. GIFT Nifty trading around 24,300 (at 7 am IST), a marginal weakness for Indian stocks. 

According to Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money, Investor sentiment is likely to remain cautious as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to cloud the global risk environment, with market participants closely assessing the risk of a broader regional conflict and its potential impact on global energy supplies. “The heightened uncertainty has prompted a more defensive stance across financial markets, limiting investors’ willingness to take aggressive directional bets” he said.

Adding to the cautious mood, crude oil prices have advanced to the $83–84 per barrel range as concerns over prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East persisted, he further said.

Kruti Shah, Quant Analyst, Equirus Securities, said Indian equities remained resilient despite a correction across several Asian markets as elevated leverage and margin debt unwound. Strong domestic institutional participation largely offset record FII outflows of around ₹3,000 billion in CY2026, highlighting the structural strength of domestic liquidity.

“With the Q1FY27 earnings season underway, market leadership is likely to shift from liquidity-driven beta to earnings revisions and management commentary. Stock-specific fundamentals should increasingly drive performance,” 

According to her, derivative positioning indicates that the 24,000 monthly straddle implies an expected trading range of 23,500–24,500. In the near term, index direction will hinge on earnings from heavyweight companies, with a sustained move above 24,500 needed to confirm a meaningful upside breakout. Banking & Financials continue to lead the market, while improving relative strength in Capital Goods and FMCG points to gradually broadening participation.

“Our quantitative framework continues to favour bottom-up stock selection over broad market exposure. As earnings season progresses, we expect factor leadership to rotate towards Quality, Earnings Revisions and Value, while momentum-driven strategies may moderate. We continue to monitor institutional flows, earnings revision breadth, market breadth and sectoral relative strength. A sustained decline in the DXY below 100 and WTI crude below USD 78 per barrel would be supportive for emerging market assets,” Shah added.

Meanwhile, there is no respite for Japan and Korean stocks. However, Australian stocks are up in early deal on Monday.

Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said This week is expected to be driven by a combination of corporate earnings, domestic macroeconomic releases, and global developments. “On the domestic macroeconomic front, market participants will closely monitor India’s foreign exchange reserves, bank credit growth, services PMI and deposit growth data for fresh insights into liquidity conditions and the health of the financial system. Progress of the southwest monsoon and kharif sowing activity will also remain important monitorables, given their implications for rural demand, food inflation, and the Reserve Bank of India’s future policy stance,” he said.

Ponmudi summed up the sentiment saying rather than witnessing a broad-based directional move, investors are likely to focus on company-specific opportunities, with quarterly earnings, management commentary, and forward guidance from heavyweight companies shaping sectoral performance. Until there is greater clarity on geopolitical developments, stock-specific movements are expected to dominate trading, while the broader indices are likely to remain sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment and fluctuations in crude oil prices.