US stock market to Kospi: Here’s world equity heatmap you should know before opening of the Indian stock market today

The Indian stock market is expected to open lower on Monday, amid cautiousness over the renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, following a fresh round of military strikes between the US and Iran which triggered a sharp jump in crude oil prices concerns and heightened risk aversion across financial markets. The trends on Gift Nifty also signal a gap-down start for the frontline indices, Nifty 50 and Sensex today.

Gift Nifty was trading around 24,044 level, a discount of nearly 197 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.

“The sharp rise in crude oil prices has heightened concerns over persistent inflationary pressures, rising input costs for businesses, and the possibility that major central banks may keep interest rates higher for longer. As a result, investors have adopted a risk-off approach, reducing exposure to equities across the region,” said Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money.

The global market cues remained weak, with investors shifting towards risk-off assets after crude oil prices surged sharply following renewed geopolitical tensions.

“While US equity markets ended Friday on a positive note, sentiment has deteriorated significantly in Monday’s Asian session as rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on global risk appetite,” he added.

Asian markets traded lower amid escalating US-Iran war in the Middle East. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 1.10%, while the Topix fell 0.20%. South Korea’s Kospi crashed 4.61%, while the Kosdaq dropped 1.38%. Mainland China's CSI 300 fell 0.64% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.91%.

“Technology stocks, export-oriented companies, and other risk-sensitive sectors are leading the decline as investors shift towards safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical uncertainty,” said Ponmudi R.

US stock market ended higher on Friday led by a rally in semiconductor stocks, while investors looked ahead to the quarterly earnings season.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.29% to 52,637.01, while the S&P 500 gained 0.42% to end the session at 7,575.39 points. The Nasdaq closed 0.29% higher at 26,281.61. For the week, the S&P 500 rallied 1.2%, the Nasdaq surged 1.7% and the Dow fell 0.5%.

However, US equity futures traded lower. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures declined 135 points, or 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%. Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 0.5%

“S&P 500 futures traded in the red, reflecting the broader deterioration in global risk sentiment and signalling a cautious start for global markets,” said Ponmudi R.

European markets ended Friday on a mixed but largely positive note. The FTSE 100, CAC 40, FTSE MIB and IBEX 35 posted modest gains, while Germany’s DAX and the Euro Stoxx 50 witnessed mild profit booking after recent record highs.

“Investors remained optimistic but cautious as they monitored global trade negotiations and the upcoming earnings season,” said Ponmudi R.

From a technical perspective, 24,000 remains the immediate support for the Nifty 50, followed by the 23,800 – 23,700 zone. On the upside, 24,300 – 24,400 will be the first resistance, while a sustained move above 24,500 could revive the broader bullish trend, according to Ponmudi R.

“Investors are expected to remain cautious throughout the session, closely tracking crude oil prices, geopolitical developments, FII activity and upcoming US inflation data for further market direction,” he said.