Nifty may open 200 points lower as US-Iran conflict, oil prices weigh on sentiment

Indian equity markets are likely to open lower on Tuesday amid mixed global signals, with the US-Iran tension lingering for another day. Even as the US stocks ended sharply lower overnight, Asian stocks are marginally up in early deals on Tuesday.

Crude oil prices are trading around $85 a barrel (Brent), again worrying investors.

Meanwhile, reports of deaths due to Covid in Andhra Pradesh rekindled anxiety among marksmen. The Kadapa administration in Andhra Pradesh has sounded a high alert after two deaths suspected to be Covid-related were reported.

Gift Nifty at 24,056 indicates a gap-down opening of about 200 points for Nifty.

Experts are also tracking FPI movement, which on Monday again turned sellers. After continuous buying in recent times, FPIs’ selling on Monday keeps marketmen anxious.

“Indian markets are expected to trade under pressure as the continuing exchange of military strikes between the United States and Iran weighs on global risk sentiment. Investor concerns have intensified after the U.S. reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and announced a 20% transit fee on cargo passing through the strategic waterway, triggering fresh fears of disruptions to global energy supplies and a sharp surge in crude oil prices,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.

Meanwhile, the latest inflation figure for June is 4.38%.

Sanjay Kumar, CEO & MD, Rassense, on CPI data for June 2026, said the latest inflation of 4.38% is a timely reminder that price pressures, especially in food and essential services, remain real for Indian households. While the headline number is still within the RBI’s tolerance band, sustained inflation at these levels reinforces the importance of responsible pricing, an agile supply chain, and tech-led productivity gains.

“Even as the broader economy navigates global uncertainties and domestic cost pressures, consumer-focused businesses will have to prioritize cost-effective measures to ensure everyday services remain accessible and affordable to the masses. While the geopolitics continue to have an indirect effect on domestic economy in the immediate scenario, we firmly believe that a combination of prudent monetary policy and industry-led discipline, along with a favourable monsoon can help anchor inflation expectations and support a stable, consumption-led growth trajectory for India.”

Analysts expect stock-specific action to continue.

Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst - Equity & Derivatives, Angel One, said, “Despite the sluggish and lacklustre price action in the frontline indices, the broader market continues to buzz with strong stock-specific moves. The breakouts witnessed in the NIFTY MIDCAP 50 and NIFTY SMALLCAP 50 indices, both representative of the broader market, are a testament to the continued outperformance of the broader market over the frontline indices. In the absence of meaningful directional momentum in the benchmark indices, participants should continue to adopt a stock-specific approach, focusing on sectors and stocks that exhibit relative strength.”