Nifty may open 200 points lower as Iran tensions hit sentiment

The fresh week is likely to open on a negative note on Monday. Gift Nifty at 24,050 signals a gap-down opening of 200 points for Nifty. Signals from Asian stocks are also negative, with the Kospi and Nikkei losing about 3.5 per cent and 1.7 per cent, respectively.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said Indian equity markets are expected to open on a cautious note as renewed geopolitical tensions following a fresh round of military strikes between the United States and Iran have reignited concerns over global energy supplies and heightened risk aversion across financial markets.

“The escalation has triggered a sharp rebound in crude oil prices, weighing on overall investor sentiment. Gift Nifty is currently trading around the 24,100 mark, below Friday’s Nifty close of 24,206.90, indicating a gap-down start for domestic equities.

Crude oil prices have climbed into the $74–75 per barrel range after the latest U.S. strikes on Iran revived fears of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. Sustained strength in energy prices could keep inflationary pressures elevated, widen India’s import bill, and remain a key headwind for the country’s macroeconomic outlook,” he added.

The focus will also be on ongoing corporate results. So far, the results are largely on expected lines.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects corporate earnings to grow at around 15% CAGR during FY26-FY28, despite near-term pressure in the first quarter of FY27. The report notes that lower energy prices, improved macro stability, and healthier earnings visibility are strengthening the investment outlook for India. “For the June quarter (Q1FY27), the report expects earnings across the MOFSL Universe to decline by 3% year-on-year, mainly due to weakness in oil marketing companies. However, excluding OMCs, profit after tax (PAT) is projected to grow 14% year-on-year, reflecting healthy performance across several sectors,” it said.

According to Motilal Oswal, financials and metals are expected to lead earnings during the quarter. Lending NBFCs, private and public sector banks, metals, technology, capital goods, retail, consumer durables and building materials are likely to remain key contributors to overall earnings growth. In contrast, Oil & Gas, automobiles, healthcare and cement are expected to weigh on overall performance, it said.

The return of foreign portfolio investors as buyers will anchor market direction and provide stability, analysts said. Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research, Bajaj Broking, said Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have turned net buyers last week, purchasing ₹4,670 crore based on provisional exchange data. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net buyers, purchasing ₹8,280 crore. Mutual fund Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) contributions reached a three-month high of ₹317.8 billion in June 2026, according to the latest data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI). This reflects a steady 2.7% month-on-month increase compared to ₹309.5 billion in May 2026, alongside a 16.5% jump from the ₹272.7 billion recorded in June 2025.