Nifty may lose nearly 200 points at open amid global headwinds, renewed US tariffs

Indian stocks are expected to open on weak note due to negative signals emanated from global stock markets and continuing war in Iran region. The crude oil price topped $100 a barrel sending shock waves to oil importing countries such as India. Besides, unwinding of yen carry trade will also trigger sell-off. The rupee has also been under tremendous pressure as it ended 20 paise lower at 96.73 against the US dollar on Thursday, weighed down by surging crude oil prices.

Asian stocks reel under selling pressure with Korea’s Kospi once again leading the slide with over 3 per cent fall in early deal on Friday. Japan, Australia, Taiwan and Singapore markets are down between 0.3 per cent and 3 per cent, tracking overnight weakness in the US market.

Gift Nifty at 23,700 signals a gap down opening of nearly 200 points. According to analysts, FPI selling will continue unabated despite reasonably good results posted India Inc except a few sectors.

The primary trigger for the fresh round of selling was continued weakness in banking, financials, and rate-sensitive sectors, compounded by persistent worries over elevated crude oil prices and a cautious build-up ahead of key quarterly earnings. “Global sentiment stayed fragile too, with soft cues from Asian peers and broader risk-off positioning keeping domestic equities under pressure, said Sachin Gupta, VP - Technical Research, Choice Equity Broking 

Meanwhile, the US said that it will collect duties of between 10% and 12.5% on imports from most major trading partners. t may be recalled that the The 10 per cent temporary tariff imposed by the US on imports from its trading partners, including India, was to expire at 9:31 am (IST) on July 24. The Trump administration, in April 2025, had announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs on a number of countries, including on India (26 per cent) that was annulled by US Supreme Court. With the fresh announcement the tariff will continue in another form.

On the Derivatives front, India VIX edged higher to 13.48, indicating that traders continue to factor in elevated volatility in the near-term. Option chain data shows maximum Put Open Interest at the 23,800 strike, followed by 23,500, suggesting that support is gradually shifting to lower strike levels as traders reposition amid the ongoing correction, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities

“Meanwhile, maximum Call Open Interest remains concentrated at the 24,000 strike, followed by 24,200, highlighting aggressive Call writing and confirming that the 24,000 level has now transformed into a strong resistance zone. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 0.68, reflecting a defensive derivatives setup with Call writers maintaining a clear advantage,” he added.