Iran conflict, crude surge drag Sensex, Nifty lower at open; IT, NBFC stocks lead losses

Markets opened in the red on Tuesday morning as renewed US-Iran military tensions pushed crude oil prices sharply higher, denting investor sentiment across sectors. The BSE Sensex, which closed at 77,616.40 on Monday, opened at 77,272.34 and was trading at 77,144.02, down 472.38 points or 0.61 per cent, as of 9.17 am. The NSE Nifty50, which ended the previous session at 24,211.00, opened at 24,068.00 and was last seen at 24,101.55, down 109.45 points or 0.45 per cent.

The selloff followed a weak overnight session on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3 per cent, the S&P 500 lost 0.8 per cent, and the Nasdaq declined 1.6 per cent. The trigger was President Donald Trump's reinstatement of a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, with a proposed 20 per cent levy on cargo transiting the waterway aboard non-Iranian ships. Brent crude surged to around $84–85 a barrel on the news. Shipping through the strait fell nearly 60 per cent, with only 14 vessels transiting on Sunday compared to 37 the previous week.

"...The escalating Iran conflict is testing whether the stock market's broad-based growth can hold, and the market will have to balance the positive of corporate earnings strength with the negative of geopolitical risks..." said Vikram Kasat, Head Advisory at PL Capital.

The Indian rupee also came under pressure, depreciating 30 paise to close at 95.62 against the US dollar in the previous session, reflecting India's vulnerability as a major crude oil importer.

"...There are some headwinds blowing again which might impact the Indian market in the near-term. The escalation of tensions in the U.S.-Iran conflict has pushed Brent crude to $84. If this spike continues it will again start impacting India's macros. The BoP vulnerability and the potential impact on the rupee can again become issues that may impact the market adversely..." said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited.

Adding to the pressure, India's retail inflation rose to 4.38 per cent in June from 3.93 per cent in May, breaching the Reserve Bank of India's 4 per cent target, driven by higher food and transport costs. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also spiked to 4.61 per cent, raising concerns about foreign portfolio investor outflows from emerging markets including India.

"...Given these headwinds, investors have to exercise caution. In this fast changing geopolitical and economic environment, investment decision-making is becoming extremely challenging..." Dr. Vijayakumar added.

Among Nifty50 losers, HCL Technologies fell the most, dropping 3.11 per cent to ₹1,183.20, despite the broader IT sector recovering last session on the back of better-than-expected Q1 results. Shriram Finance slid 2.28 per cent to ₹1,024.20, while IndiGo declined 2.05 per cent to ₹5,122.50. Bajaj Finance dropped 1.91 per cent to ₹1,003.10, and Mahindra & Mahindra shed 1.48 per cent to ₹3,113.50.

"...IT stocks are bouncing back from low levels helped by low valuations and better-than-expected Q1 results from TCS and HCL Tech. This appears to be a short-term tactical trade..." Dr. Vijayakumar noted.

On the gaining side, metals and energy stocks offered some relief. Hindalco Industries rose 1.26 per cent to ₹979.00, while ONGC gained 0.76 per cent to ₹250.33. Tata Steel was up 0.66 per cent to ₹188.34. Max Healthcare added 0.60 per cent to ₹1,112.80, and Coal India edged higher by 0.58 per cent to ₹432.70.

Technically, the Nifty finds itself in a tight trading band. "...We believe the 20-day SMA or 24,000/77,000 will act as a key support zone for short-term traders. As long as the market trades above this level, the uptrend wave is likely to continue. On the upside, 24,275/77,800 could act as immediate resistance for day traders..." said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, flagged that crude oil prices above $80 a barrel combined with rising domestic inflation crea...