If OpenAI becomes ‘Lehman Brothers of AI bubble’ – What happens to Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle and Amazon?

“The AI bubble is actually an OpenAI bubble,” AI critic and researcher Ed Zitron says, arguing that the ChatGPT maker sits in the centre of today's AI boom. If it collapses, he warns, it could become “the Lehman Brothers of the AI bubble.”

“OpenAI is the reason anyone cares about AI,” Zitron says and further adds, “you can talk all you want about open source models or Anthropic — but without OpenAI, the AI industry doesn’t exist, and the justification for trillions of dollars of capex evaporates.”

If OpenAI fails, it will be because LLM models are unprofitable, Zitron says. They spend heavily on AI infrastructure, while their subscription business and advertising revenue do not cover those costs.

“While there might be billions of dollars left to be raised, to pay any of its bills (for building its AI infrastructure), OpenAI needs tens of billions of dollars multiple times a year”

On top of that, OpenAI's free users have become a major liability. The Information reported that the company expected to generate $2.4 billion in ad revenue in 2026 and $102 billion by 2030, but the reality is much harsher than expected. eMarketer estimates that the entire AI chatbot advertising market will generate just $1 billion this year and $5.41 billion by 2030.

Now, if OpenAI collapses, there is no compelling story for any other AI company. Without OpenAI, investors would see AI labs as financial black holes, and most AI startups are just repackaging existing AI models without making a profit. According to Zitron, OpenAI's failure wouldn't just shake the AI industry—it could rattle the entire stock market, triggering a much larger sell-off and leading everyone to accept that the AI bubble has burst. But how will it impact the big tech?

“First thing is, don't lump those four together - the question kind of assumes they're all in the same boat on OpenAI, and they're not,” Viram Shah, Founder and CEO, Vested Finance, told LiveMint

On whether the spending is durable, Shah says, “mostly yes, with a caveat. The big spenders are putting somewhere around $700 billion into this in 2026, and the point people miss is that they can afford it”

These are companies sitting on hundreds of billions in cash with real cash flow, so it isn't debt-fuelled the way the private labs are. That's the key difference. If demand for AI slows, companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA may see lower earnings and weaker investor confidence.

“But the bigger financial risk is for AI companies that depend on raising money and recycling it within the AI ecosystem to stay afloat.”

Sanchari Ghosh is an Assistant Editor at Mint with over 12 years of experience in journalism, specialising in personal finance, DLT & DeFi, geopolitics and foreign policy, with a particular emphasis on how these areas intersect. <br> She writes extensively about how money works in everyday life—helping readers navigate personal finance decisions. <br> As AI reshapes investing behaviour, capital is increasingly flowing into decentralized ecosystems, redefining how assets are managed, traded, and valued. She focuses on explaining how money flows within frameworks like Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), DeFi protocols, and crypto markets—while also exploring what the future of money could look like in a trustless, programmable financial world. <br> She also focuses on immigration-related issues, simplifying complex topics around visas, passports, overseas financial planning, and the many practical challenges Indians face while moving or living abroad. <br> Alongside personal finance, Sanchari has a strong understanding of international politics, contemporary and historical conflicts, and global state decisions. She closely tracks how geopolitical developments influence economies, markets, and individual financial choices, bringing together finance and global affairs in her reporting. <br> She began her career as a desk editor, which gave her a strong foundation in news writing. Over time, her inter...