Gold, silver prices fall on MCX as escalating US-Iran tensions overshadow weak US inflation data
AI Summary
Gold and silver prices fell in the domestic futures market despite a slowdown in US inflation, which reduced expectations for aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. MCX gold and silver futures dropped by 0.55% and 0.41%, respectively, as geopolitical tensions with Iran continue to pose risks to market stability. Investors should remain cautious as the Fed's stance on inflation and ongoing conflicts could influence future price movements.
Gold and silver prices declined in the domestic futures market on Wednesday (15 July) morning despite a surprise slowdown in US inflation which dimmed the prospects of aggressive rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve this year and eased the US dollar.
MCX gold August futures were 0.55% down at ₹1,41,471 per 10 grams, while MCX silver September futures were 0.41% down at ₹2,22,266 per kg around 9:15 am.
The US dollar index eased further to 100.76 from 100.92 in the previous session as investors dialed back expectations of US Fed rate hikes even as crude oil prices traded higher in futures market as US President Donald Trump warned of additional strikes on Iran but scrapped a plan to levy shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude September delivery traded over 1% higher near $86 per barrel around 9 am IST.
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 3.5% in June 2026 from 4.2% in May. Month-on-month, the US CPI declined 0.4%, the first decline since the COVID-19 pandemic (April 2020), after increasing 0.5% in May.
Annualised core inflation, or inflation excluding the volatile food and energy components, increased by 2.6% year-on-year compared with expectations for 2.8%, and after rising 2.9% year-on-year in May.
However, the US-Iran conflict rermains a key factor that will decide how gold and silver prices move in the near future.
Tensions have been escalating and no major diplomatic efforts are visible at this juncture to diffuse the tensions.
As per reports, US military carried strikes against Iran for a fourth consecutive day on Tuesday (local time) and reimposed a naval blockade to prevent ships from sailing to or from the country's ports.
"After June’s decrease, the annual inflation rate decelerated to 3.5% but this will likely revert given energy prices during the first part of July. The big risk is still geopolitical. If supply chains improve by Labor Day, we should expect inflation to decidedly improve by the end of the year," Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist for LPL Financial, noted.
"After benign core inflation, it appears less likely that the FOMC will raise rates over the next few meetings. However, we may still be at an inflection point, given the risk that the energy shock could spill over into other categories of consumer prices. A positive resolution with Iran before the end of the summer is becoming increasingly important," Roach observed.
Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on Tuesday told the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee that he would "continue to do his job" despite any pressure from President Trump.
In his testimony, Warsh reiterated bringing inflation back to the 2% target is his main goal.
"Soft US inflation data pushed the dollar index lower and supported gold and silver prices. However, the Fed Chairman’s remark before house that the US Fed will not tolerate elevated inflation and higher crude oil prices due to the US-Iran conflicts could limit gains of both precious metals," said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research.
Jain said gold has support at $4,022 and $3,989 while resistance is at $4,110 and $4,140 per troy ounce and silver has support at $57.40 and $56, while resistance is at $60.60 and $62.00 per troy ounce in today’s session.
Original Article
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