Five-year-high grain stocks offer India an El Niño buffer

New Delhi: As the threat of an El Niño clouds the outlook for this year's kharif crop, the government is entering the season with its strongest foodgrain buffer in five years. Latest available data shows the central wheat and rice stocks were at 81.75 million tonnes (mt) as of 1 May, nearly four times the prescribed buffer norm, providing a cushion against any supply disruption and food price pressures.

The stock update for June is likely to be detailed later this month.

According to the consumer affairs, food and public distribution ministry data reviewed by Mint, the central pool held 42.8 mt wheat and 38.95 mt rice as on 1 May, against the combined buffer norm of about 21 mt.

The stock build-up has been driven by a strong rebound in wheat procurement. Wheat inventories were at 42.8 mt as on 1 May, compared with 35.7 mt in the year-ago period, 25.96 mt at the same time in 2024, 29.0 mt in 2023 and 30.3 mt in 2022. While stocks remain below the pandemic-era peak of 52.5 mt of 2021, this year's procurement has significantly replenished central reserves after two years of relatively tight availability, the data showed.

Rice stocks have remained broadly consistent. Central rice inventories were at 38.95 mt as on 1 May 2026, marginally higher than 38.1 mt a year ago, 31.91 mt in 2024, 26.5 mt in 2023 and 33.2 mt in 2022.

Together, wheat and rice stocks totalled 81.75 mt, compared with 73.8 mt a year ago, 58.3 mt in 2024, 56.0 mt in 2023 and 63.5 mt in 2022, making this the highest 1 May stock level in five years.

The comfortable stock situation gives the government greater flexibility to contain food inflation through open market sales, meet commitments under the National Food Security Act and other welfare schemes, and respond to any production shortfall if adverse weather conditions affect the sowing and the harvest in the ongoing kharif season.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast south-west monsoon rains at 90% of the long-period average amid emerging El Niño conditions. Of the total of around 800 districts, the government has identified 315 as being vulnerable to weak monsoon conditions, including 111 high-priority districts with low irrigation coverage, where delayed or erratic rain could affect crop sowing and reduce yields.

Experts said the unusually high grain stocks will help the government mitigate weather-induced production shocks and could help moderate food inflation even if the kharif harvest is affected by El Niño.

“The current foodgrain stocks are reassuring from both food security and inflation management perspectives. Even if El Niño affects kharif production in some regions, the government has adequate reserves to meet public distribution requirements and intervene through open market sales if prices start rising,” said Rakesh Arrawatia, professor at the Institute of Rural Management Anand (Irma) and dean at the School of Cooperative Banking and Finance. "That significantly reduces the risk of any immediate supply-side disruption."

Although El Niño does not necessarily translate into a poor monsoon or lower crop output for India, it increases the probability of rainfall variability, said K.J. Ramesh, a former director general at IMD. “In such a scenario, higher foodgrain stocks offer policymakers greater flexibility to manage supplies and prevent price volatility if production is affected."

The delay in southwest monsoon onset has already affected the season's sowing. Kharif crops, led by paddy, soybean and cotton, have so far been sown across 35.08 million hectares, around 9.2 million hectares or over 20% less than the year-ago level, according to agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

The minister was, however, optimist about the prospects, and cited the narrowed overall rain deficit to 24% from 33% in June after recent spells of good rain. The number of rain-deficient districts has also declined from 262 to 178.

The Centre is closely monitoring the situation in key agr...