Vegetable inflation soars, likely to go up further

Aside from potatoes, onions and peas, vegetable prices are soaring. Data from the Ministry of Statistics reveals that 8 out of 17 key items experienced double-digit inflation in May, with tomatoes driving the sharpest increases. Experts now warn that a projected below-normal monsoon could drive vegetable prices even higher.

Inflation for the group of Vegetables, including tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses, jumped from the negative territory with 5.3 per cent to 4.3 per cent in May, higher than food inflation of 4.78 and headline inflation of 3.93 per cent. The price surge is largely attributed to erratic weather and early heatwaves, raising serious concerns about crop production for the rest of the year.

According to the retail prices of vegetables in Delhi monitored by www.vegetablemarketprice.com, lemon, green peas, brinjal, carrot, cabbage, green chilly and french beans are among the vegetables that have seen a rise between ₹15-60 per kilogram within a month between May 22 and June 22.

Normally, vegetable seedlings are prepared before the June-September monsoon rains, after which they are transplanted into main fields. However, this year, slow progress of monsoon, along with high temperature in many parts of the country, has affected both seedling planting and replanting. This could lead shortage of vegetables and hence prices likely to go up further.

Rajni Sinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge, said while foodgrain buffer stocks are robust compared to the past El Niño years, food items, especially vegetables, pulses and edible oils, could witness upward price pressures.

This is likely to impact food inflation. In a note, HDFC Bank said that in May, on a sequential basis, food and beverages inflation inched up by 0.9 per cent m-o-m versus 0.2 per cent m-o-m in April-26. Looking ahead, “the risk to the food inflation trajectory comes from heatwaves in North-Western India, El Nino risk and forecast of a below normal SW monsoon,” it said. As on June 23, cumulative rainfall deviation from normal stood at (-) 43.2 per cent.

Horticulture scientists said that there will not be any problem for fruits, but the area under vegetables may decline since those farmers who undertake these in rainfed area may shift to millets and other crops when rainfall deficit is substantive. Normally, all the vegetable areas have assured irrigation, but a large number of areas also covered during monsoon season, particularly by small farmers, said a senior scientist of ICAR.

India’s vegetables production in 2025-26 increased to 221 million tonnes (mt) from 217.8 mt in 2024-25 as area increased to 11.88 million hectare (mh) from 11.79 mh.