India’s corn exports seen rising to 2.4 million tonnes for MY25-26 on weak prices, says USDA Post

India’s corn exports may touch 2.4 million tonnes for the marketing year 2025-26 ending October as relatively weak prices has resulted in a surge in demand from neighbouring buyers in recent months.

The USDA’s local office has raised the estimates of India’s corn exports to 2.4 million tonnes based on the shipment trends in recent months, while lowering the imports to 50,000 tonnes. USDA had projected exports of 1 million tonnes for MY2025-26.

India’s exports of corn in the first five months of MY 2025/2026 (November 2025-March 2026) is reported at 996,000 tonnes, more than three times the exports during the same period last year, with monthly exports estimated around 200,000 tonnes per month, the Post said.

“Relatively weak corn prices have resulted in resurgence in exports to neighbouring markets like Bangladesh, Vietnam, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan on lower shipping costs and ease of sending smaller shipments. Trade sources expect continued steady exports in the balance of the marketing year on expected weak domestic prices and relatively competitive prices for Indian corn in these destinations. Assuming current price parity for Indian corn vis-a-vis corn from other origins in these countries, MY 2025/2026 exports are estimated to reach 2.4 million tonnes. However, exports prospects in MY 2026/2027 may weaken on forecast relatively tight domestic supplies and steady growth in domestic demand,” the Post said.

Meanwhile, the sowing of corn/maize till June 19 has been tad higher at 5.69 lakh hectares over corresponding last year’s 5.34 lakh ha, as per the Agriculture Ministry data. This is despite the delayed onset and sluggish progress of monsoon across the key producing regions in Central India. Last kharif, maize was planted in a record area of 98.61 lakh ha.

Based on third advance estimates, the maize production for 2025/26 has been raised to a new record of 55 million tonnes, an unprecedented 27 per cent increase over the previous year. The strong upsurge in production is due to record planting and yields largely owing to above normal monsoon last year and relatively firm prices in the previous marketing season.

For 2026-27, the Government has raised the MSP for maize by ₹10 to ₹2410 per quintal.

Maize prices have been on a downward trend ruling below the MSP levels for several months now. Average market prices in the month of May 2026 in the major corn producing/consuming states slightly improved on reported strong export demand. Average spot prices in major producing/consuming states ranged from ₹17,950 ($179) to ₹21,000 ($221) per metric tons, with May 2026 average prices estimated 14 percent below last year and nearly 19 below the government MSP.

USDA sees India’s corn production for MY2026-27 at 47 million tonnes. However, for the marketing year 2026-27 starting November, India’s corn exports are forecast lower at 1 million tonnes on relatively tighter domestic supplies and steady growth in demand with imports projected at 1 lakh tonnes compared to previous year (MY 2025/2026).