El Niño play starts. What a tardy monsoon means for India

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It's an unusually tardy start for India's much-awaited south-west monsoon. The rain-laden current kicked off its India journey three days behind schedule in Keralam, and the delay has only worsened. Over 450 districts have got deficient rains so far, raising concern over farming, water supplies and the broader economy in an El Niño year. What is causing the delay, how unusual is it, and what could it mean if the shortfall persists? Mint explains.

An El Nino year typically brings weak rainfall activity in the tropical regions. After a delayed arrival in Kerala on 4 June, the progress is only getting only slower, as per the India Meteorological Department (IMD). In India's commercial capital Mumbai, which is dependent on seven rain-fed lakes for its drinking water, monsoon is nearly two weeks delayed from the onset date of 10 June. It will now reach in a couple of days, says IMD. Mumbai has enforced water supply cuts amid a looming shortage.

By 20 June, the monsoon typically covers parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, and parts of Jharkhand, but it had only reached south Maharashtra, south Telangana, east Odisha, and parts of east Jharkhand by 20 June, the data showed.

Likely, yes. The IMD has predicted the season's rains at around 90% of the long period average. In its latest weekly update, the IMD said the country received 46.2 mm rain during 1-17 June, 38% lower than normal, with central India getting 62% below normal rainfall. Daily data shows nearly 450 districts of the total 741 got ‘deficient’, ‘large deficient’, or no rainfall.

States with the most low-rain districts this year are Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Telangana and Madhya Pradesh, where rice and soybean crops largely depend on monsoon rains.

India receives nearly 70% of its total rainfall through the south-west monsoon, making it critical for kharif crop sowing. With only about 55% of India’s net sown area irrigated, most of the country still relies on seasonal rain for farming. A good monsoon is thus crucial for rural incomes, spurs consumption and aids overall economic growth.

Rural India's share in the country's private consumption is around half. It contributes at least a third to overall fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales, and nearly half of two-wheeler volumes. Ratings agency Icra, in a 19 June note, estimated a modest 3-5% volume growth in two-wheelers in FY27 from 9% in FY26 due to potentially weaker monsoon, among other factors.

The water mark in India's reservoirs is below the year-ago level, but still higher than the long-term average. The level is 86.62% of the year-ago storage and 113.02% of the 10-year average for the period, as per the farm ministry's Unified Portal for Agricultural Statistics (UPAg) as on 18 June, the latest report available.

Reservoir levels are closely tracked during the monsoon season, when they get replenished, for policy preparedness.

Hydropower, largely generated from reservoirs, accounts for 10-11% of India’s installed electricity generation capacity. Experts see hydropower generation about 10% lower this year due to weak rainfall, Mint reported on 12 June.

While hydropower accounts for a relatively small share of India’s power generation, it is crucial to keep the power grid stable. Experts see hydropower particularly hit at key reservoirs in central India, such as NHPC’s Omkareshwar and Indira Sagar projects.

Manas is a New Delhi-based journalist with Mint, where he covers the intersection of economic policy, industry, and emerging sectors shaping India’s growth. He writes on government regulation, manufacturing, and the clean energy transition, with particular depth in areas such as electric mobility, battery ecosystems, and rare-earth supply chains. He has written on India’s efforts to build domestic capacity in electric vehicles and energy storage, as well as the broader push to reduce import dependence and strengthen supply chain resilience. His reports are not limited to capturing the headline; they also aim to explain complex policy simply.<br><br>Manas has studied law in Pune, the city where he grew up, followed by a business journalism diploma from the Asian College of Journalism in Chennai. In his almost two years of being a correspondent for Mint, Manas has reported as major wars unfolded, a general election brought surprises for both the ruling party and the Opposition, and three Union Budget announcements where India has charted its economic course for the days to come.<br><br>On vacation, Manas plays bass guitar with his friends in Space & Co, their jam-rock band. He also likes cats, and occasions of late-night snacking.

Vijay C. Roy is a journalist with over 21 years of experience covering various news beats across different organisations such as Business Standard and The Tribune. In the past, he has covered beats such as finance, auto, MSME, commodities, FMCG, pharmaceutical, agriculture, IT/ITES, infrastructure and start-ups. He joined Mint in February 2025, and covers agriculture, food processing, fertilizers, environment and climate change, bringing over two decades of experience reporting on farm policy, food inflation, crop trade, and rural livelihoods.<br><br>Vijay’s areas of reporting include food security and climate change policies, focusing on their impact on different stakeholders and their implications. His expertise lies in simplifying complex agri-economic issues such as edible oil import dependence, cotton and wheat trends, fertiliser subsidies, and climate-related risks. He has covered key developments including global supply disruptions and evolving trade policies, offering both macroeconomic perspective and field-level context. Known for his credible and balanced reporting, he follows a rigorous, fact-based approach that prioritises accuracy and context. He is driven by a commitment to public interest, aiming to make critical agricultural and economic issues accessible while contributing to informed policy and industry discussions.

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