El Nino could weigh on India’s sugarcane production

A developing drought-bearing El Nino weather pattern will likely emerge as a key risk for India’s sugar sector, with industry experts warning that a weak monsoon could impact sugarcane yields and tighten supplies.

GK Sood, Advisor, All India Sugar Trade Association, said that reservoir levels in Maharashtra, which are critical for sugarcane cultivation, are broadly similar to 2024, while Karnataka has seen a significant recovery following recent rains. Together, the two states account for nearly half of India’s sugarcane crop. Uttar Pradesh’s reservoirs are also in a better position than two years ago, providing sufficient water for protective irrigation despite some rainfall deficits in eastern parts of the state, he said.

Commenting on the outlook for sugarcane, Sood said the production this season may be in the range of 400-420 million tonnes, compared with 420 million tonnes last year. If the rainfall disappoints during the crucial July-August period, the output could fall to around 390 million tonnes.

“Looking at this year’s sugar balance sheet, even 20 million tonnes is serious,” Sood said at a webinar on “Super El Nino, Crops, and the Consumer: A Webinar on Agri-Impact” organised by AISTA.

AVM GP Sharma, President (Meteorology and Climate) of Skymet, said while weather agencies typically review and refine monsoon forecasts after about 45 days of rainfall data, early indications suggest 2026 could face a weak monsoon and possible drought conditions, with seasonal rainfall potentially dropping below 90 per cent of the long-period average.

Sharma said El Nino events typically last 9-12 months, meaning the current episode could weaken after the Northern Hemisphere winter and end before next year’s monsoon. However, the following “devolving El Nino” phase can still adversely affect rainfall.

“A devolving El Nino is also not a very safe period which we consider, but then it is not as harmful as El Nino,” Sharma said.

Shweta Saini, Founder and CEO, Arcus Policy Research, said the government investments in irrigation and climate-resilient agriculture have strengthened the sector, with assured irrigation coverage rising from less than 40 per cent to about 55 per cent of India’s gross cropped area.

However, alongside the El Nino threat, farmers are facing rising input costs and production challenges, which could push up cultivation expenses and depress yields across both kharif and rabi crops despite improvements in agricultural infrastructure. Historical trends show that both kharif and rabi crops tend to suffer during El Nino years, with sugarcane and maize particularly vulnerable to yield losses, while paddy may show limited impact at the national level but can experience significant regional declines.